The proportion of foreign buyers in the Montréal real estate market remains below the record of 4.9% reached in 2018 in condominiums.
A widespread perception that foreign buyers are contributing to the real estate overheating would not be entirely founded. Recent data from JLR Real Estate Solutions, obtained by Radio-Canada, show that the phenomenon has been rather stable for the past five years.
On the island of Montreal, from 2016 to 2020, the proportion of foreign buyers has increased from 3.7 percent to 4.1 percent for condominiums and has remained at 1.2 percent for single-family homes. A very small increase was observed during the first five months of the current year, with the proportions standing at 4.4 per cent and 1.7 per cent respectively, for a total of 343 foreign buyers.
The borough of Ville-Marie remains the preferred location in 2021, with 11.6 per cent of condo buyers coming from another country so far. Outside the metropolis, the results are somewhat anecdotal.
"What I'm seeing is that there's an increase from what we had 10 years ago. If you look at 2014, we've pretty much doubled, but for the last few years it's seemed pretty stagnant." - Joanie Fontaine, senior economist, JLR Land Solutions
JLR Senior Economist Joanie Fontaine explains that this data is from buyers who had a foreign home address at the time of the transaction. They can therefore be confusing, because we have to distinguish between immigrants [who buy with the intention of settling in Montreal] and foreign investors.
Purchases by foreign investors: Negligible
Patrice Groleau, owner of the brokerage agencies McGill Real Estate and Engel & Völkers, observes that acquisitions made as investments by foreigners remain the exception to the rule in Montreal, compared to Vancouver and Toronto.
We really have people in a migratory process, so it's not speculation," he maintains. He recalls that on average, close to 50,000 immigrants arrive in Quebec each year - with the exception of 2020 because of the pandemic. Most of them are gaining a foothold in the metropolis. In some condominium projects, up to 40% of the buyers are not born in Canada.
Groleau points to a recent example of a Frenchman who bought a $9.5 million penthouse off-plan. He insists that these people are moving here.
"Foreign investor buying is so negligible that it doesn't impact the increases we've seen recently or the increases that are coming." - Patrice Groleau, owner, McGill Real Estate and Engel & Völkers
The return of immigrants, however, he says, portends an increase in buyers who are still considered non-residents of the country. What has been delayed in time should in this sense be compensated for as soon as the borders reopen.
More or less reliable data
Both Joanie Fontaine and Patrice Groleau raised a problem with the quality of the statistics available to get a clear picture of foreign buyers. In addition to the large proportion of immigrants who ultimately distort the data, a phenomenon of nominees cannot be excluded.
Among other things, it is difficult to know the origin of new buyers. Many come from France, Belgium, Switzerland and the Maghreb, but also from the United States and China.
Last fall, economists at the Quebec Ministry of Finance began tracking transactions in the land register to get a better picture of the situation. The citizenship of the buyers is now listed. At this point, it is too early to obtain official information.
In Ottawa, Statistics Canada's Canadian Housing Statistics Program has been trying since 2017 to get agreement from the Quebec government to acquire data on real estate transactions in the province.
The lack of data for Quebec, notes program leader Jean-Philippe Deschamps-Laporte, means that public decision-makers - whether at the federal or provincial level, in the non-profit sector or public society groups - do not have access to information when making decisions.
Despite several attempts, the Ministère des Affaires municipales et de l'Habitation du Québec has not provided an explanation for this.
However, with other data already at its disposal, Statistics Canada could establish a detailed profile of transactions, including certain socio-economic characteristics. Ontario, British Columbia, New Brunswick and Nova Scotia have agreed to share their data.
In its last budget, the federal government announced its intention to impose a Canada-wide tax of one per cent on vacant units owned by foreigners for investment purposes, starting in 2022. The measure, aimed at combating soaring real estate prices, could raise up to $700 million over four years. At first glance, it may have little effect on the Montreal market.
Source : Article by Mathieu Dion on the website ici.radio-canada on 2nd July of 2021
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